Umami Unleashed - Dispelling Msg Myths
When I moved to San Francisco, I noticed something interesting in supermarkets: many food packages were labeled “No MSG.”
This stood out to me because I had never seen such labels in Japan, where I am from. Intrigued, I began to wonder what MSG is and why it’s perceived as harmful.
As I looked into it, I learned that monosodium glutamate (MSG) is a flavor enhancer first commercialized by a Japanese company, Ajinomoto, and it is commonly added to canned vegetables, soups, and processed meats. More importantly, I discovered that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) classifies MSG as “generally recognized as safe,” placing it in the same category as salt and pepper. This means that, based on scientific evidence, MSG is safe to consume in normal amounts.
But if MSG is scientifically considered safe, why do so many food packages proudly advertise “No MSG”? You rarely see labels boasting “No Salt” or “No Pepper.” If companies are using this label to appeal to consumers, what is driving the demand to avoid MSG in the first place?
To understand this skepticism, I looked into the history of MSG skepticism. In the 1960s, a small number of Americans who ate Chinese food reported experiencing symptoms such as drowsiness, facial flushing, itching, headaches, body numbness, and mild back discomfort. These symptoms were collectively dubbed “Chinese Restaurant Syndrome” after Robert Ho Man Kwok published a letter with the same name in the New England Journal of Medicine in 1968.
Notably, this wasn’t a formal scientific research paper—it was just a anecdotal letter to the editor describing these symptoms. Still, its publication seems to have sparked widespread suspicion about MSG. The following year, The New York Times published a report linking MSG to Chinese Restaurant Syndrome, further amplifying public concern.
Despite subsequent scientific studies debunking the association between MSG and these symptoms, the negative perception persisted. Even today, many people instinctively distrust MSG, even though there is no solid evidence to support these fears.
Many argue that the MSG myth is rooted in racism, but it is bigger than that. Interestingly, skepticism about MSG is not a recent or American phenomenon. Misinformation about it has circulated for over a century—even in Japan, where MSG was first discovered by the chemist Kikunae Ikeda and commercialized by Ajinomoto.
An example of this dates back to an opinion advertisement published on May 13, 1922, in the Tokyo Asahi Paper. Issued under the name of Suzuki Shoten, the predecessor of Ajinomoto, the ad stated: “We declare to the world that Ajinomoto is absolutely not made from snakes.” This was a direct response to misinformation claiming that their MSG product was derived from snakes.
This pattern of consumer misconceptions raises a deeper question: why do people keep making the same mistake for over 100 years?
Reflecting on this, I realized it might stem from the naturalistic fallacy, a concept I’ve mentioned before. People often distrust additives because they perceive them as “unnatural” and therefore harmful.
But where does this deep-rooted preference for “natural” foods come from? One possible explanation is the historical backlash against industrial pollution.
I’ve previously discussed examples like DDT, asbestos, and lead-based paints, which contributed to widespread distrust of industrial chemicals. In Japan, a 1973 investigation by the Kawasaki City Pollution Control Bureau found that Ajinomoto, among other factories, had been discharging mercury into Tokyo Bay at dangerously high levels. At the same time, the company was also involved in producing and selling DDT, a synthetic pesticide widely used after World War II. Cases like these reinforced the idea that anything industrial or synthetic must be dangerous, especially when the company has been involved in the industrial pollution in the past.
In reality, the fear of food additives isn’t rooted in science—it’s tradition. My mother warned me about them, just as many parents do, passing down skepticism without question. But “natural” isn’t always better, and progress has made food safer, not riskier.
MSG’s story is a reminder of how old fears outlive the facts—and how deeply ingrained beliefs can shape our choices, even when the evidence says otherwise.
Could You Game a Lottery?
Late last year, I joined this advantage gambling event out of curiosity about how the world depicted in the movie 21 operates in real life. The speaker covered various games and strategies to exploit them. The biggest surprise came when he discussed lotteries. I had always thought lotteries were only for idiots since the expected value should be negative.
Expected value (EV) is calculated as (Reward * Probability) - (Penalty * Probability)
. In the case of a lottery, it represents the chance of winning multiplied by the prize, minus the ticket price.
How can you have a positive expected value (EV) in lotteries? You won’t achieve this by purchasing your tickets early. However, as more tickets are sold and prizes are distributed, there may come a time when the EV becomes positive because the probability of winning might increase with enough prizes remaining.
How do you get information about the prize and probability? Apparently, lottery players scrape lottery websites to fetch this information and then calculate the EV. This repo parses scratch-off lottery ticket data from state lottery websites, for example. The EV calculation has to be more complex than this repo’s calculation when you consider things like taxes and multiple winners (you might have to split the prize), but it’s certainly doable if you are willing to put in some effort.
In practice, prize distributions may be designed in a way that you can’t beat the system, and the logistics can be challenging. But still, buying a lottery ticket may not be idiotic when you figure that the EV is positive.
The Habsburg Curse - Recessive Genes and the Doom of Royal Inbreeding
Carlos II was born into the Habsburg family, a dynasty that had ruled Spain for centuries. He suffered from numerous severe physical and mental health issues, including developmental delays, infertility, premature aging, frequent convulsions, and chronic gastrointestinal problems.
Notably, his oversized jaw, a hallmark of the Habsburg lineage, made eating and speaking particularly difficult for him.
These weren’t just random bad luck; it is said that they were due to the Habsburgs’ habit of inter-family breeding. This was supposed to keep their royal bloodline pure, but it ended up causing its downfall. Carlos II was the last of the Spanish Habsburgs, marking the end of their rule.
It’s common sense that inter-family breeding, also known as consanguineous marriage, is a bad idea. But why?
Consanguineous marriage can increase the risk of certain genetic disorders due to the inheritance of recessive genes. Genes can be either “strong” (dominant) or “weak” (recessive). If you have a dominant version, that’s the one that gets expressed, even if you also have a recessive version. The recessive gene will only be expressed if you inherit two copies of it—one from each parent.
For example, think of eye color. If brown eyes (dominant) and blue eyes (recessive) are options, you’ll have brown eyes if you inherit one brown-eye gene because brown is stronger. To have blue eyes, you need to inherit the blue-eye gene from both parents, because two recessive genes are needed for it to show up.
In consanguineous marriages, because the parents are related, they are more likely to both carry the same recessive genes, so the chances of their children inheriting two recessive versions are higher.
Inheriting two recessive versions of a gene isn’t always a problem. However, some recessive genes carry instructions that don’t work properly, and if a child inherits two copies of a recessive gene mutation, it can lead to health issues.
For example, Cystic fibrosis (CF) and sickle cell disease are genetic conditions caused by inheriting two faulty copies of recessive genes.
Although not all of Carlos II’s health conditions may not come from detrimental recessive genes, scientists from Spain’s University of Santiago de Compostela argue that his conditions such as muscular weakness, willpower deficiency, infertility/impotence are likely to come from his genetic disorder.
Cultivated Meat Price Per Pound
As of November 2024, conventional minced beef costs $5 to $6 per pound. It’s important to note that I’m mainly talking about minced meat in this post, not things like sliced meat or steak, which are way more complicated and pricey to cultivate.
Meat Type | Price per Pound (USD) |
---|---|
Beef (Ground) 1 | 5.62 |
To make cultivated meat a viable option, its production costs need to match those of traditional meats.
In 2013, when Dr. Mark Post and his team at Maastricht University made the first cultivated meat, a single beef burger cost €250,000, which was over $330,000 at the time.
Significant progress has been made since. In the the documentary Meat The Future, Memphis Meat(now known as Upside Foods) shared that the price per pound for beef was $1,700 in 2018. When they started in 2015, the price had a couple of extra zeros. By the end of the documentary, the team mentioned that the price per pound had dropped to $50. They didn’t say exactly when this happened, but it likely occurred about 4 to 5 years ago since the film came out in 2020.
I haven’t come across any solid stats on current costs, but some cultivated meat founders have told me that production costs are still at least ten times higher than regular meat. This can change based on the specific process and the company.
We also need to think about how they calculate the costs. Do they include expenses for bioreactors, salaries, and building the facility, or is it just about the culture media? Plus, a lot of reports focus on large-scale production, which can be misleading.
Although precise production cost reports are scarce and some numbers can be a bit off, the cultivated meat industry has made remarkable progress over the past decade. I am hopeful that the cost will be as low as traditional meat in the not-so-distant future.
Beef (Ground) - Average Price of Ground Beef on FRED.↩︎
Who Is Gonna Eat Cultivated Meat?
Cultivated meat is an exciting and ambitious project with many challenges, such as regulation, cost, scaling, flavor and texture development, and bioreactor optimization. However, the greatest challenge may be consumer acceptance.
It’s unclear who will buy cultivated meat. Meat eaters often lack strong motivation to choose it, especially if it’s more expensive or not significantly better than traditional meat at a similar price. Many vegans and vegetarians are also unlikely to eat it—those who have never eaten meat feel no desire to start, while others prefer plant-based options like tofu, edamame, Impossible Foods, and Beyond Meat. For a portion of this group, the very idea of cultivated meat is even repugnant.
As a vegan myself, I wholeheartedly support the development of cultivated meat for its potential to address critical issues like global warming, animal welfare, and food safety. But I’m not sure if I would personally want to eat meat again—at least until I try it.
In the long term, cultivated meat could potentially scale to become cheaper than traditional meat, which might encourage consumers to switch. However, this assumption may be overly optimistic. It seems even more unrealistic to expect such a breakthrough without generating profits along the way, given the high production costs associated with cultivated meat.
Thus, they need to start with finding initial target customer until they scale at least to the cost level of traditional animal meat.
How can we address the dilemma where cultivated meat fails to meet the needs of either meat eaters or vegans/vegetarians? Given the high cost of production, who would be willing to pay a premium for cultivated meat?
There may be a subset of meat eaters who are conscious of environmental impact and animal welfare. Some of them may already be flexitarian, while others may struggle to stop eating meat simply because it tastes so good.
Paul Shapiro, author of Clean Meat, shares an intriguing consumer insight from a study conducted by Kristopher Gasteratos, founder of the Cellular Agriculture Society, in collaboration with New Harvest and the Good Food Institute.
Gasteratos’ study reveals, “People still seem to be generally unaware of this topic, but what really shocked me was our finding about how higher self-reported meat consumption correlated with higher cultured meat acceptance.” Shapiro concluded that “the people who say they eat the most conventional meat tend to be the most receptive toward a cultured alternative, while those who say they eat little meat, especially vegetarians and vegans, are the least interested.”
Assuming that the initial customers will come from this subset of meat eaters, what products should we focus on building?
For high-cost products like cultivated meat, it might make sense to focus on high-end items such as wagyu beef, otoro, and foie gras. Although replicating wagyu beef or otoro remains technically challenging, some startups are already working on cultivating foie gras.
Tesla famously employed this top-down market penetration strategy, starting with luxury sports cars that targeted customers willing to pay a premium, then moving downmarket to achieve higher unit volumes and lower prices. I assume the motivation of their early customers was to support environmentally friendly technology. Similarly, I wonder if producing high-end cultivated meat could attract meat eaters who care about global warming and animal welfare.
However, cars and meat are vastly different. For car purchases, consumers can easily signal their status and values by driving the vehicle. In contrast, meat purchases are unlikely to serve as effective status symbols or easily communicate shared values. Additionally, the car industry is relatively high-margin and low-volume, whereas meat is traditionally low-margin and high-volume, even for luxury products. Convincing consumers to repeatedly buy cultivated meat at a premium may prove more challenging than persuading them to purchase a luxury car once.
Simply focusing on high-end items may not be enough. The initial product must address a significant pain point for desperate customers. Maybe it could be designed to be nutritionally complete, catering to busy individuals by providing nutrients that conventional meat lacks. Or it could be developed specifically for people with meat allergies or digestive issues. Another idea is tapping into entirely new markets, like space food.
While these markets may be small and have limited growth potential, but the bigger point is that cultivated meat needs to get creative if it’s going to take over the meat market.
Underground Surrogacy Market
Surrogacy is legal in California. Typical users include male same-sex couples and older individuals who may have difficulty carrying a child. However, it is also a viable option for straight couples if the wife cannot take an extended leave from work. My friend is going for this option since his wife is running a Series A startup.
When I chatted with him, he and his wife were getting ready to meet their potential surrogate mom. The surrogate mom must have gone through a rigorous screening process where surrogacy agencies check her health and legal eligibility. As you might have guessed, it is still quite expensive, and he said he expects the total cost to be around $150,000. Costs vary depending on needs and preferences. For example, same-sex couples would need more money as they require sperm or egg donation.
This market functions well because it solves an incredibly painful problem of pregnancy for those who can afford to buy surrogacy, and it is profitable for both agencies and surrogates.
However, the high cost and high-margin nature of this business have spawned an underground market, with buyers are exploring cheaper alternatives like unqualified domestic surrogates (there is a Facebook group, according to my friend) or seeking overseas surrogate mothers at lower prices. Since the price is still high for sellers, they are still willing to work for buyers, and it’s attracting surrogacy agencies with high enough margins.
The underground market was already reported ten years ago in 2014 in China by the NYT. The featured Chinese surrogate mother in this documentary earned $24,000 as a surrogate mother, which is equivalent to 18 years of working as a farmer in her hometown. Last year, National Geographic also reported on the black surrogacy market, highlighting the profitable nature of the agency business and the desperate women who need money.
Policy change is necessary. Most countries and states haven’t legislated commercial surrogacy laws. Some countries have banned it. For example, the last month, the Italian parliament has made it illegal for couples to travel abroad for surrogacy, leaving no legal options domestically. This policy not only complicates family planning for LGBTQ couples but also raises concerns about the emergence of an underground market. In such a scenario, surrogate mothers may lack protection, putting the health of children at risk.
Some countries and states have allowed surrogacy, but it’s time for an update. We need to legalize and regulate surrogacy to make it a safe, ethical, and accessible way to create families. Legislation should be inclusive, meeting the diverse needs of LGBTQ+ couples, older folks, and single parents by choice, so everyone can start a family. It’s super important to protect surrogate mothers by ensuring fair pay, complete healthcare, and legal rights. Plus, we must prioritize the health and well-being of the kids born through surrogacy.